Part of handling fantasy advice, when it comes to the NHL, is answering inevitable questions about whether a certain player will bounce back or keep up his current pace. One of the first things I want to do is find out whether or not a player is getting chances and one of the first places Ill look is to shots on goal per game. For some players, this can be revealing of a change in role -- more ice time, better linemates, power play time, whatever -- and an indication that, indeed, that offensive breakout is supported by underlying stats or, on the other hand, that there is jusfication for lowering expectations. Comparing last season to the current season, I picked out 114 players that have played at least 10 games in each season and had more than a half-shot-per-game difference, either positively or negatively. Some of these players played little bits in either season, which present sample size issues (for example, Erik Karlssons 4.65 shots on goal per game in 17 games last year was going to be crazy difficult to maintain over a larger sample of games), but the indicator is the objective here -- finding out whether the change in production might be supported by taking a step further back to gauge shots generated. Among those recording the largest per-game increases, David Perron, Chris Kreider and Ryan Kesler have been tremendous contributors to their teams, but scanning through the list, players like Mike Santorelli, Jaden Schwartz, Andrej Sekera, Jason Garrison and Alex Ovechkin are among those whose improved production is supported by their increased shot output. Perron has been even better than expected for the Oilers, and has been one of their leaders lately, but hes generating far more than he ever did in St. Louis. Santorelli and Schwartz are playing more significant roles this season (Schwartz in part because of Perrons departure), while Sekera has been asked to handle more puckhandling responsibility on Carolinas shallow blueline. Ovechkin is back to launching shots at the rate that made him the games premier goal-scorer. On the other hand, there are players that have struggled to this point in the year and their shot numbers suggest thats to be expected. David Clarkson, Matt Moulson, Alexander Semin and Jiri Tlusty are among those forwards to see the biggest declines in their shots per game compared to last season. No surprise, then, that their goal and point production is down too. The move to Buffalo has not been kind to Matt Moulson and David Clarksons decision to sign in Toronto has come with some pains as he has been suspended for a dozen games and, due to injuries, hasnt established a steady combination of linemates. Semin and Tlusty were part of one of the leagues best lines last season, with Eric Staal, but Staals production has improved this year only once they were no longer playing together. There are some surprises on these respective ends of the shooting spectrum, because their production hasnt been dramatically affected. Matt DAgostini has been getting an opportunity to play in a scoring role since he was picked up by the Buffalo Sabres, but is sitting on one point in 15 games this season, despite a respectable shot total. Anaheims Matt Beleskey is generating more shots than ever before, but has just one goal thanks to scoring on just 2.9% of his shots thus far. The Blues T.J. Oshie has been rolling along for much of the season, racking up points alongside Alexander Steen and David Backes, but Oshie also has just four goals in 31 games, thanks to both a career-low shooting percentage (7.8%) and career-low in shots per game (1.65). I cite these examples to show that changes in shot production dont automatically mean a players point production is automatically destined to follow. Nevertheless, I like shots on goal as an indicator, a first place to look before digging deeper, if necessary. The players with the widest shot-per-game differences from last season (minimum 10 games played in both seasons): Player Pos. Team 12-13 Sh/GP 13-14 Sh/GP Differential David Perron Edmonton LW 1.75 3.45 1.70 Chris Kreider N.Y. Rangers LW 0.83 2.44 1.61 Ryan Kesler Vancouver C 2.12 3.66 1.54 Nathan Gerbe Carolina LW 1.52 3.03 1.51 Tyler Johnson Tampa Bay C 0.79 2.18 1.39 Chris Higgins Vancouver LW 1.88 3.17 1.29 Jeff Carter Los Angeles RW 2.77 3.83 1.06 Mike Santorelli Vancouver C 1.03 1.97 0.94 Matt DAgostini Buffalo RW 1.14 2.07 0.93 Jamie Benn Dallas LW 2.68 3.61 0.93 Andrej Sekera Carolina D 0.89 1.81 0.92 Jaden Schwartz St. Louis LW 1.11 2.03 0.92 Lee Stempniak Calgary RW 2.40 3.31 0.91 Matt Beleskey Anaheim LW 1.45 2.33 0.88 Brad Richards N.Y. Rangers C 2.39 3.26 0.87 Philip Larsen Edmonton D 0.94 1.79 0.85 Mark Giordano Calgary D 1.23 2.07 0.84 Mathieu Perreault Anaheim C 1.21 2.03 0.82 Ryan Smyth Edmonton LW 1.47 2.28 0.81 Ryan Garbutt Dallas LW 1.64 2.44 0.80 Eric Nystrom Nashville LW 1.00 1.80 0.80 Jason Garrison Vancouver D 2.00 2.80 0.80 John Carlson Washington D 2.02 2.82 0.80 Matt Gilroy Florida D 0.93 1.69 0.76 Phil Kessel Toronto RW 3.35 4.09 0.74 Matt Read Philadelphia RW 1.72 2.44 0.72 Brandon Dubinsky Columbus C 1.72 2.44 0.72 Corey Perry Anaheim RW 2.91 3.63 0.72 Alex Ovechkin Washington RW 4.58 5.29 0.71 Patrick Sharp Chicago LW 3.14 3.83 0.69 Logan Couture San Jose C 3.15 3.82 0.67 Dan Hamhuis Vancouver D 1.30 1.97 0.67 James Neal Pittsburgh RW 3.40 4.06 0.66 Adam Pardy Winnipeg D 0.35 1.00 0.65 Marian Hossa Chicago RW 2.90 3.55 0.65 Chris Kunitz Pittsburgh LW 2.35 3.00 0.65 Kris Russell Calgary D 1.24 1.88 0.64 Reilly Smith Boston RW 0.92 1.55 0.63 Ryan Johansen Columbus C 2.10 2.73 0.63 Patrick Marleau San Jose LW 3.13 3.76 0.63 Martin Hanzal Phoenix C 2.38 3.00 0.62 Pavel Datsyuk Detroit C 2.28 2.89 0.61 Craig Smith Nashville RW 1.89 2.50 0.61 Mike Cammalleri Calgary LW 2.32 2.92 0.60 John Moore N.Y. Rangers D 0.97 1.56 0.59 Dan Boyle San Jose D 2.11 2.69 0.58 David Schlemko Phoenix D 1.17 1.75 0.58 Clarke MacArthur Ottawa LW 1.55 2.12 0.57 Mason Raymond Toronto LW 1.72 2.29 0.57 Jonathan Ericsson Detroit D 0.76 1.32 0.56 Andrew Shaw Chicago RW 1.33 1.88 0.55 Matt Irwin San Jose D 2.08 2.62 0.54 Duncan Keith Chicago D 1.94 2.47 0.53 Ryan OReilly Colorado LW 2.28 2.81 0.53 Anze Kopitar Los Angeles C 2.09 2.62 0.53 Kyle Turris Ottawa C 2.46 2.97 0.51 Tom Gilbert Florida D 0.84 1.35 0.51 Alex Tanguay Colorado RW 1.11 1.62 0.51 Brent Seabrook Chicago D 1.38 1.89 0.51 Ryan Malone Tampa Bay LW 1.54 2.04 0.50 Stephane Robidas Dallas D 0.96 1.46 0.50 Nazem Kadri Toronto C 2.23 1.73 -0.50 Tim Kennedy Phoenix LW 1.85 1.35 -0.50 Brad Marchand Boston LW 2.02 1.52 -0.50 T.J. Oshie St. Louis RW 2.17 1.65 -0.52 Luke Schenn Philadelphia D 1.72 1.20 -0.52 Peter Harrold New Jersey D 1.57 1.05 -0.52 Damien Brunner New Jersey RW 2.80 2.27 -0.53 Erik Johnson Colorado D 2.06 1.52 -0.54 Paul Gaustad Nashville C 1.52 0.97 -0.55 David Booth Vanouver LW 2.25 1.70 -0.55 Shawn Matthias Florida C 2.21 1.65 -0.56 Kyle Brodziak Minnesota C 1.84 1.26 -0.58 Troy Brouwer Washington RW 2.36 1.76 -0.60 Jack Johnson Columbus D 2.18 1.58 -0.60 Dany Heatley Minnesota RW 2.31 1.71 -0.60 Patrik Elias New Jersey LW 2.46 1.85 -0.61 Daniel Girardi N.Y. Rangers D 1.76 1.15 -0.61 Jannik Hansen Vancouver RW 2.11 1.48 -0.63 Patric Hornqvist Nashville RW 3.63 3.00 -0.63 Richard Clune Nashville RW 0.98 0.35 -0.63 Andrei Loktionov New Jersey C 1.68 1.03 -0.65 Dan Cleary Detroit LW 1.94 1.29 -0.65 Brian Flynn Buffalo RW 1.88 1.23 -0.65 Jonathan Huberdeau Florida LW 2.33 1.67 -0.66 Drayson Bowman Carolina LW 1.84 1.16 -0.68 Shane OBrien Calgary D 1.00 0.31 -0.69 Pierre-Cedric Labrie Tampa Bay LW 0.84 0.15 -0.69 Lauri Korpikoski Phoenix LW 2.31 1.61 -0.70 Scott Gomez Florida C 1.49 0.79 -0.70 Francois Beauchemin Anaheim D 1.54 0.84 -0.70 Ryan Callahan N.Y. Rangers RW 3.20 2.50 -0.70 Josh Bailey N.Y. Islanders LW 2.00 1.27 -0.73 Marian Gaborik Columbus RW 3.21 2.47 -0.74 Brad Richardson Vancouver C 1.68 0.94 -0.74 Trevor Lewis Los Angeles RW 1.92 1.16 -0.76 Cody McLeod Colorado LW 1.65 0.88 -0.77 Jiri Tlusty Carolina LW 2.44 1.65 -0.79 Martin Erat Washington LW 1.53 0.73 -0.80 Martin Havlat San Jose RW 2.23 1.42 -0.81 Alexander Semin Carolina RW 3.41 2.59 -0.82 Daniel Paille Boston LW 1.52 0.67 -0.85 Magnus Paajarvi Edmonton LW 1.79 0.92 -0.87 Daniel Briere Montreal RW 2.56 1.68 -0.88 Mark Letestu Columbus C 2.00 1.06 -0.94 Jamie McGinn Colorado LW 2.72 1.75 -0.97 Matt Moulson Buffalo LW 3.28 2.29 -0.99 Ryan Wilson Colorado D 1.92 0.80 -1.12 Mikael Backlund Calgary C 2.75 1.63 -1.12 Carl Hagelin N.Y. Rangers LW 2.75 1.63 -1.12 Zac Dalpe Vancouver C 1.80 0.63 -1.17 Erik Karlsson Ottawa D 4.65 3.12 -1.53 David Clarkson Toronto RW 3.75 2.17 -1.58 Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. 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The 41-year-old Northern Irishman has proved a perfect fit at Liverpool since taking over from Kenny Dalglish in the summer of 2012 and steered the team to an unexpected title challenge in the Premier League last season. Vapormax Flyknit 3 Pas Cher . Just ask Arsenal fans. However, Arsene Wenger has repeatedly told anyone willing to listen that finishing in that spot is more important than winning a cup competition.1. MASON PLUMLEE (Nets): Ready to have a nice season. Love the energy he plays with. No quit in his game. He is quite, athletic, with nice bounce in his game. You better block him out or hes getting a put back on you on the glass. Face up game is solid 15 feet and in when he has time to settle. Will take advantage of extra minutes this year. 2. JR SMITH (Knicks): Watching him in Montreal on Friday night I just shook my head. He looks lost in the triangle offense. Its not that complicated - you read and react. Classic example of a guy who had played on his talent and clearly hasnt figured out what the other nine guys on the floor are out there to do. Has solid scoring skills but has a hard time having it translate to team game. 3. DERRICK ROSE (Bulls): Real curious to see how he reacts this season to back-to-backs and three games in four nights and four games in five nights scenarios. Bulls coaches are going to have to keep a close eye on his minutes/wear and tear. In my mind, in this case its about getting 60-65 games in the regular season out of him and have him prepared to play big time minutes in the playoffs when you have days off in between games. A great season in Chicago is based upon postseason successs, not the number you attach to wins at the end of the regular season.dddddddddddd. Hes an asset you need to protect considering his health history. 4. STEVE NASH (Lakers): What can I say that hasnt already been said the past few days? Honestly, hard to come up with anything unique on this. Ill just say thanks for the memories. You embodied all thats really good in team sports. Your selfless team-first approach was a joy to watch. I could always clearly see that you took great pride in the successes of your teammates. Truly a servant and a leader in every respect. Hall of Fame Player? Yes, for sure, but more importantly, a Hall of Fame individual. 5. KLAY THOMPSON (Warriors): No deal on extension yet. He really intrigues me. I like the fact that hes a very good two-way player who doesnt take plays off. He competes hard defensively and has a wonderful shooting stroke with an improving dribble game. If he ever gets out on the open market in the years to come - particularly when the cap increases due to the future TV deal - hell cash in big time. Management needs to figure out his current and future value with respect to the changing salary cap and other obligations. Dont want to lose this guy. ' ' '